Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Philip E. Tetlock

A New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of 2015"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.

Published: 2015-09-29 (Crown)

ISBN: 9780804136693

Language: English

Format: Hardcover, 352 pages

Goodreads' rating: -

Genres

Psychology Economics Science Nonfiction Business

Reviews

Heinrick rated it

During the first hundred pages, I was sure to give the book a perfect score. It totally caught my attention and made me want more and more. The book made me feel like it had been written for me, someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts, but feels like he could be good at it.Then, after the half of the book, you get a little bored because it always come back to the same thing: Use number to make your predictions in a well established timeframe, always question your predictions till the time runs out, learn from the past and see beyond your conic vision.This book is very interesting and worth giving a shot. It's a good mix of science and history, but you still feel like you're reading a novel. I was expecting nothing from this book and got quite a fun at reading it. I've been positively surprised and hope you'll be too.I got to thank Philip E. Tetlock and Random House of Canada for this book I received through Goodreads giveaways.

Nikolaus rated it

5 - What a great book! It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking, Fast and Slow, Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.Thought-provoking and full of very perceptive observations. But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written. This is an example of non-fiction at its best. There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story as well. Philip E. Tetlock and/or his co-author (not sure who should take the credit) are superb storytellers! It was not only insightful but genuinely enjoyable to read this book.I usually read several books simultaneously one or two non-fiction titles and a bunch of fiction stories. But last week 'Superforecasting' monopolised my reading time. And it is particularly telling how well it managed to trample competition from its fiction 'rivals'.It goes straight to my absolute best non-fiction shelf. I recommend it strongly to all curious about the psychology of decision making and an ability of our mind to cope the uncertainty.

Trip rated it

Un libro interesante acerca de cómo realizar pronósticos. Uno de los puntos principales para saber cómo se comportará un fenómeno en el futuro depende en gran medida de la información con la que contamos y los posibles escenarios que podrían suceder. Aunque siempre existen sucesos inesperados el conocimiento de las situaciones disminuyen la incertidumbre.